The Second Wave Or Recovery?

by admin on July 15, 2009

I drank some beer with a friend of mine yesterday. He was best man at my wedding. We have tried to get together once in awhile at the same drinking establishment (Soho in Vancouver) for more than 15 years now.

He has become a goldbug over the last year. You know, one of those guys who think the US has printed too much money and with the trade deficit is headed towards hyperinflation. He thinks gold is headed towards $5000 an ounce. Yeah, yeah, yeah....

He asked me my prediction of the future. I told him I have lots of opinions about the future. Unfortunately, over the last five years pretty well all my predictions about the future have been wrong. I was much smarter when my age was closer to thirty than to forty.

But's what a blogger without an opinion? An ex-blogger. So here goes, here is my opinion about the future.

I think there is going to be a second wave of bankruptcies to hit this industry. Oh sure we've got LVI and we got Drent Goebel singing the blues but that's just a warm-up. Some other players are going to go down and the blood won't stop running until February.

Sure we have an economic crisis. And for sure there will be a recovery, it's just a matter of timing. But there's more than that. The whole media front has changed, newspapers and magazines and every form of print media is struggling for survival. And let's talk about chronic underinvestment in prepress. Oh boy, could we talk about that for awhile, maybe? Let's say one prepress shop in ten (and I'm being generous) has put money into hardware/software over the last couple of years. How much companies have been "managing by cutting" for so long they think it's normal?

Do you want to know what I mean? Go read the short story "Survivor Type" by Stephen King.

That's the average prepress shop of today. And it won't last forever: It just feels like it.

{ 1 comment }

Esz July 16, 2009 at 2:59 am

Our company is pretty tight at the moment – but I really think food packaging is heading in the other direction. The technology is advancing a lot and there’s much to be done still in the prepress department of a flexo or gravure printer. I mean, I do trapping! In publishing its not really necessary is it? There, its becoming more and more automated.

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